Summary
A coup d’état spells uncertainty for the future on an entire country. Leaders, institutions, and national priorities can change in an instant, leaving private sector organizations and their employees unsure of what to do next. While coups are unpredictable by design, private sector security managers can take measures to prepare their organization and employees for the impacts of political instability.
Determining the Best Response for Your Organization
A coup d’état occurs when a group suddenly and illegally seizes state power. Coup plotters are typically members of the political elite or military and assign themselves as the new political leaders. Coups can be non-violent, involve small-scale and short-lived violence, or lead to protracted violence throughout the country. The new government may enjoy widespread public support or may face significant resistance from the domestic public or international community. New leaders may largely uphold political structures and procedures or may quickly dismantle government institutions. In short, no two coups are the same and every variation in such a period of political instability marks different challenges for the private sector. Preparing for those variations requires imagination and extensive scenario planning on the part of security managers and organization decision makers.
OSAC has various products to help private sector organizations prepare for crises like political instability. Security managers should consult those products, listed at the end of this report, for suggested tactical preparations for a coup. Every organization’s response to a coup will be unique to that organization’s mission, priorities, and capabilities. This piece does not seek to prescribe responses, but instead serves to help security managers think through variables that may impact their organization during a coup and consider actions appropriate for their organization.
Employee Safety
The aftermath of a coup may raise immediate safety concerns for employees and their families. Consider the following risks to individuals in your organization’s risk mitigation plans for periods of political instability.
- Demonstrations frequently follow coups and employees may wish to express their support for the new regime or resist the change in government by participating in demonstrations. Security forces may confront demonstrators with lethal force and may carry out mass arrests of demonstrators. Consider how your organization will warn employees of the dangers of demonstrations after a coup and encourage employees to follow best practices for safety during the emotionally charged aftermath of a coup.
- Coups may be accompanied by a breakdown in law and order, including looting and an increase in street crime. Employees may face risks depending on their location and their commute to work. Consider preparing options for employees to shelter at home or at work in the event of suddenly impermissible security environments, and how that change will impact your organization’s operations.
- Immediately following a coup or an attempted coup, regimes often enact curfews. Encourage employees to mind curfew orders. Organizations may consider encouraging employees to shelter in place regardless of curfews. See OSAC’s report, Before Disaster Strikes: Preparing Your Go- and Stay-Bags for recommendations on preparing food, medicine, and supplies for a prolonged shelter in place period, whether at home, work, or another location.
- Regimes resulting from or threatened by a coup may also limit civil liberties by prohibiting protests, limiting free speech, outlawing rival political or social groups, or more. Consider how your employees may be individually impacted by threats to civil liberties, and how your organization would encourage employees to remain safe amid a crackdown on rights.
- Depending on the motivations behind the coup, employees may become vulnerable to harassment by the government or members of the public due to their ethnicity, religion, socioeconomic status, political affiliation, or other characteristics. Monitor the impact of the coup on various societal groups and consider options for supporting vulnerable employees and their families.
Organization Security
Sudden political instability can change every aspect of an organization’s security. New risks may arise depending on an organization’s footprint, relationships, mission, reputation, and other factors that force a reconsideration of everything from day-to-day operations to presence in the country. Developing a framework of potential impacts and respective mitigation plans can help your organization prepare for physical, legal, and reputational risks prompted by political instability.
- The change in government may impact a private sector organization’s legal status in country. The new political leadership may respect permits issued under the prior government or may cancel some private sector organizations’ permits and government agreements depending on the organization’s mission, political affiliations, or sector. Sometimes, lower-level bureaucrats remain in their positions after a coup, even if the new government purges institutional leadership. Prior to a coup, build relationships with government officials at all levels who could help guide your organization through murky legal changes in times of political instability.
- Exercise caution when making organization statements about the political situation, whether those statements come from organization headquarters or locally. Consult local employees and other local partners who can assess risks associated with statements that may be perceived as critical of the new government or the political situation. The new government may react negatively toward an organization or its employees if they perceive the organization as unsupportive of the coup.
- Organizations that decide to remain in a country after a coup may face challenges associated with economic sanctions. Working with a new government and individual leaders subject to sanctions may pose legal risks for private sector organizations. Sanctions may also lead to local economic challenges including shortages of cash or supplies.
- Communications disruptions ranging from restrictions on select social media sites or messaging applications to total internet shutdowns are common following coups. Consider backup options for communicating with employees, including using multiple messaging platforms or satellite phones, where permitted.
- Organizations with close government partnerships should consider how those partnerships may become a risk in the event of a sudden change in leadership. A new government may be hostile toward organizations that worked closely with ousted leadership. Such hostility may merit a pause in organization activities or consideration of evacuation from the country.
Considering Evacuation
Following a coup, organizations may decide it is in their best interest to evacuate the country. Coups can complicate evacuation procedures and organizations should consider why they would evacuate or not, who would be included in an evacuation, what would happen to organization assets left behind, and if and how they would resume operations in the country.
- Following a successful or failed coup, regimes frequently close borders and airspace. Regimes are unlikely to make exceptions for private sector organizations to leave the country in the case of border closures. The U.S. embassy will likely release security information on border closures and recommendations on whether U.S. citizens who wish to depart should go to the airport or drive to a border crossing, or if they should wait at home for further information.
- Keep in mind that other security risks that existed before the coup, such as issues of terrorism, militancy, and crime, will likely continue to exist following the coup. If your organization considered road transportation out of the country too dangerous before the coup, those risks have likely not subsided. Continue to take a holistic approach to security and consider threats associated with the new political situation in the context of preexisting security threats that may impact evacuation routes.
- Consider security for organization assets left behind, such as properties, sensitive documents, vehicles, and technology. Organizations may not be able to rely on physical security measures enacted before the coup for the length of the evacuation; any local employees who remain in the country may not have the resources to maintain security for organization assets. Local security contracts may expire or be canceled after your organization draws down employees or ceases operations in the country. Take sensitive assets during the evacuation, destroy or disable them, or consider alternative options for maintaining physical security of work sites, property, and information after evacuation.
- Weigh competing reputational risks and perceptions when deciding whether to evacuate or not. Evacuating may harm an organization’s relationships with local stakeholders and the new government, while remaining in country may be perceived as support for the new government.
- Mind visa complexities when considering evacuation options. Staff of different nationalities may have varying visa requirements in neighboring countries or preferred evacuation destinations, requiring different evacuation plans for staff of different nationalities.
- Consider a return plan. Under what circumstances would your organization return to the country after an evacuation? Will your organization only return after protests relent? Or will you wait until after the government holds elections? If the government seeks to transition to elected leadership, it may take years to hold elections. Also consider new visa requirements for returning to the country. A new government may not honor previously approved business visas and other permits for organization-associated travel or operations.
- Note any changes to U.S. government presence in the country. In times of violent political instability, the U.S. Embassy may limit operations or evacuate personnel, diminishing services the U.S. government can offer to U.S. private sector organizations and citizens in need. A departure of U.S. embassy personnel or family members will not necessarily prompt a U.S. government-assisted evacuation of U.S. citizens. U.S. citizens who wish to leave a country in an emergency should always seek commercial options and should not plan on U.S. government assistance for an evacuation. Learn more on the U.S. Department of State webpage: What the Department of State Can and Can't Do in a Crisis.
Emergency Preparedness Resources
Additional Information
For more information on the security environment where your organization operates, contact OSAC’s Research and Analysis team.
The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of State or any affiliated organization(s). Nor have these opinions been approved or sanctioned by these organizations. This product is unclassified based on the definitions in E.O. 13526. OSAC’s full disclaimer and copyright policy is available on our site at OSAC.gov/About/Disclaimer.
