Summary
On July 28, Venezuela will hold its presidential election. Political violence and civil unrest is expected in the lead up to the election as oppostion of President Nicolas Maduro’s regime grows. Civil unrest is driven by public tensions over the regime’s supperession of democratic institutions and ongoing economic crisis. Popular support for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonalzez Urrutia remains strong; however, widespread election interference by the Maduro regime indicates a free and fair election process is unlikely. Political violence is anticipated as the regime is likely to use government and non-government forces, known as colectivos, to carry out election-related violence to quell threats. OSAC members with operations in Venezuela should prepare for potential unrest, political violence, and be aware of the risk of arbitrary detentions.
Elections Background
Since succeeding Hugo Chavez in 2013, President Nicolas Maduro has significantly undermined Venezuela’s democratic institutions. Elections during his tenure have been widely criticized domestically and internationally for fraud and lack of legitimacy. In 2023, Venezuela’s National Assembly appointed new members to the National Electoral Council (CNE), ensuring a pro-Maduro majority. The CNE has faced numerous corruption allegations, including the controversial decision to rescind an invitation to the European Union to observe the upcoming presidential election. These elections have consolidated power within the executive branch, particularly benefiting Maduro, who has maintained control over nearly all aspects of governance despite increasing public dissent. In an effort to address international concerns about electoral fraud, the CNE facilitated an agreement on June 20, in which all candidates pledged to respect the election results; however, this agreement has been criticized as symbolic rather than substantive in light of continued electoral violations committed by the CNE.
To supress public protest, the regime has significantly limited free press. Since 2013, the government has seized control of all forms of print and digital media, imposing barriers against any criticism of Maduro. Broadcasting signals of any television or radio channel perceived as subversive are regularly interrupted, while print journalism faces financial hurdles due to increased costs of paper and printing supplies. Furthermore, access to online news and information websites is frequently blocked by the government.
Venezuela’s economic crisis, driven by over-reliance on oil, poor governance, and international sanctions, has resulted in hyperinflation, shortages of basic essentials, and a humanitarian emergency that has negatively impacted civilian life. Venezuela’s economy has largely relied on oil exports, rendering the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Mismanagement and poor policies under Maduro exacerbated economic vulnerabilities and led to hyperinflation, shortages of essential goods, and a collapse of public services. International economic sanctions implemented in response to Maduro’s degradation of democratic institutions further worsened the nation’s economic crisis. The worsening economic crisis resulted in widespread poverty and a massive healthcare emergency that prompted a mass migration of over 7 million people fleeing the country.
Opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia has emerged as a significant challenger to the regime, with early polling suggesting he could win a free and fair election. A former diplomat, Urrutia joined the Democratic Unity Platform after top candidate Maria Corina Machado was disqualified by the Maduro regime, despite winning the opposition primary with 93% of the vote. Following Machado’s disqualification and that of her successor, Urrutia gained prominence within the party, supported by Machado. Despite widespread backing among Venezuelans, questions linger over the fairness of the upcoming elections, given the regime’s history of interference - to include ballots prominently featuring Maduro’s image significantly more than other candidates on July 11.
Political Violence and Civil Unrest Expected
Political violence is likely as historically, the government has used violence to shut down civil unrest, and intimidate opposition and voters. Government security forces have regularly engaged in violence to shut down protests and quell anti-Maduro rhetoric. Additionally, the administration uses armed groups known as colectivos to act as an informal extension of security forces, threatening and attacking opposition candidates and coercing civilians to vote for Maduro through violence at polling centers. In 2023, there was an increase in reports of colectivo activity targeting opposition candidates, especially in the lead up to the October presidential primaries. This intimidation, coercion, and violence are likely to continue to suppress opposition and maintain the regime’s control.
Civil unrest is expected as public frustration mounts over election fraud and the government’s hinderance of free and fair elections. Public anger stems from the regime’s suppression of free press and civil liberties, the unfair disqualification of candidates, and the economic crisis severely impacting civilian life. In January 2019, former National Assembly President Juan Guaido led mass protests in Caracas, calling for free and fair presidential elections. Despite mass civilian support, Maduro regime maintain control of the military and managed to suppress protests. The 2019 protests marked a significant challenge to Maduro’s power following public frustration over a fraudulent election process. Several protests have occurred in the lead-up to the 2024 elections, including a massive rally in the state of Barinas on July 6. Continued government interference is likely to provoke and promote additional protests in the lead up to July 28 and in following weeks.
Private-Sector Impact
OSAC members with operations in Venezuela should be aware of the high risk of civil unrest and political violence, with nationwide protests and election-related violence expected. Tensions between the public and the regime are expected to increase as the election approaches. Organizations may be impacted by demonstrations, especially in Caracas, that shuts down roads, cause shortages of fuel and electricity, and provoke a significant security response. Additionally, violence at polling centers is a high risk as indicated by previous elections. Violence may be instigated by government security forces as well as colectivos. The risk of arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens and foreign journalists is high as the Maduro regime likely seeks to suppress opposition and quell political threats.
The U.S. Travel Advisory assesses Venezuela as “Level 4 – Do Not Travel” due to crime, civil unrest, kidnapping, and the arbitrary enforcement of local laws. Additionally, the U.S. Travel advisory advises to reconsider travel due to wrongful detentions, terrorism, and poor health infrastructure. The U.S. has not maintained an Embassy presence in Venezuela since March 2019, and as such, the U.S. government has no ability to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens.
Additional Information
For more information on the security environment in Venezuela and across the Americas, contact OSAC’s Americas Team.
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