Summary
Elections are a hallmark of the democratic process. They are also a time of uncertainty and instability in many countries. Electoral violence often relates directly to existing conflict patterns and grievances such as ethnic divides, religious conflicts, issues of inequality, and corruption. Indicators and risks of violence vary throughout the electoral cycle, and early identification of those warning signs can help ensure the security of private-sector personnel and operations. This product will help private-sector security managers understand how election timelines, indicators and risks of violence, and election security best practices can help them to prepare for and avoid the negative effects of election-related insecurity.
Election Timelines
Each election comes with its own unique set of risks. These risks often change throughout the electoral cycle. Be mindful of the ongoing election cycle and potential triggers for violence during each phase of the election.
Between Elections
The years between elections almost certainly present the least risk to private-sector operations. Low-level political rallies and speculative election-related decision-making rate among the most pertinent threats. In some countries, government decisions to change constitutional provisions or change the makeup of an independent electoral body occur in non-election years and often spark demonstrations.
Electoral processes start years before voting. Before there is significant attention on an upcoming election, security managers should assess the current and past conflict environment, and politically motivated incidents.
Questions to consider between elections:
- Is there a history of election-related violence?
- If so, was the violence concentrated in a particular region?
- Is there currently an atmosphere of intimidation?
- Beyond physical violence, are there other means of intimidation, extortion, and threats?
- What are the legacies of past conflict on election security today?
Pre-Election
In the year before an election, political parties register, select candidates, and begin campaigning; voters register to vote; and election bodies begin preparations for Election Day, such as hiring staff and determining polling locations. Campaign rallies occur with increased frequency, escalating the risk of unrest. As demonstrations grow in size and frequency, the potential for clashes between security forces and wrong-place-wrong-time incidents also increases.
At this phase, security managers should identify any emerging indicators of violence and, if there is violence, work to identify trends in timing, location, and actors. Host-nation and foreign governments may implement disinformation campaigns to undermine election credibility and obfuscate the security environment.
Review OSAC tool, OSAC Risk Matrix
Potential triggers for violence during the pre-election phase include:
- Legal changes related to the election that drive perceptions of a skewed process.
- Appointment of one or more divisive electoral commissioners seen as preventing the commission from being impartial and effective.
- Party registration processes that result in any party disqualifications, especially if the decision appears arbitrary, if there is an uneven application of regulations, or if the regulation appears biased. Alternatively, an attempt to register a new party that will likely draw voters from an existing party may trigger interparty violence or violence against the registering authority.
- Candidate nomination and announcement processes that result in politicians or factions who did not win a nomination feeling marginalized or excluded from participating in the election.
- Forced displacement of populations in an effort to skew voting patterns.
Read OSAC report, Surviving a Protest
Election
If there have been indicators of violence in the Between Elections and Pre-Election phases, violence is also likely to occur on Election Day and in its immediate aftermath. Violence on Election Day is often centered around polling stations, where violent actors may seek to deter or intimidate voters, threaten poll workers, or alter or destroy ballots. Election Day may be a national holiday and local goods and services providers may be closed. Authorities in some countries have disrupted or disabled communications (SMS, internet, cell access, etc.) during elections.
On Election Day, security managers should identify any instances of violence, communicate identified dangers with employees, and implement emergency preparedness plans, as necessary. Security managers should also ensure local staff members have adequate access to basic necessities as well as contingency plans for disrupted communications.
Potential triggers for violence on or around Election Day include:
- Frustration with procedural issues including long lines at polling stations, technology failure, and incorrect or inadequate voting materials (especially if they are destroyed or disappear). Long lines are also vulnerable to attack.
- Rumors of fraud carried out by election workers or enabled by election administrators or other actors (e.g., party agents or security forces) that spark violent protests, clashes between parties, or attacks on election workers or perceived perpetrators.
- Security force, militia, gang, or youth harassment of voters or candidates, generally at the direction of government officials or politicians.
- Preliminary counts at polls that contradict candidate or voter expectations and lead to accusations of election fraud.
- Denial of election observer access (international or domestic).
Post-Election
During the Post-Election phase, officials count and certify votes and announce winners. The Post-Election phase poses a high risk of violence, especially if political parties or other actors perceive the voting or counting process as fraudulent. Violence during this period could be contained to the immediate aftermath of Election Day, or it could continue for months following the election.
In the Post-Election phase, security managers should continue to monitor any reports of violence or demonstrations and continue communicating with employees about impacts post-election violence may have on employee welfare or organization operations. Prepare for the next election cycle by noting emergency procedures that worked well and those that should be improved to better address election challenges.
Potential triggers for violence in the Post-Election phase include:
- Procedural errors and delays with tabulation or the announcement of partial or full results.
- Mounting rumors of widespread fraud.
- Release of quick counts, exit polls, or proclamations of victory by parties or candidates that violate voter expectations. This can be compounded by delays in counting and releasing official results. Tallies can be purposefully inaccurate to drive expectations and form a basis for parties or candidates to claim the election was stolen.
- Criticisms of electoral conduct by international observers and foreign governments, which may be perceived by the losing political group as justification for engaging in violent protest.
- Official results announcement, especially if it violates expectations, appears illegitimate, is poorly timed (e.g., delayed or too early) or if officials fail to clearly communicate processes in advance, disappointing contesting parties’ and voters’ expectations, or if communicated procedures are not followed.
- Key parties or candidates refuse to concede defeat.
- Security force harassment of candidates or supporters.
- Coalition formation in which a party or candidate feels excluded.
Private-Sector Impact
Private-sector organizations should be aware of upcoming elections in their countries of operations. Note dates of milestones in the election cycle, such as voter registration deadlines, primaries, Election Day, vote-counting periods, and swearing-in dates for the winning candidate(s). Events on any of these dates and more may trigger demonstrations or violence. Milestones within the election cycle may also pose challenges for private sector operations, including business closures, heavy traffic or road closures, or other travel and logistics issues. Avoid travel or events around major election cycle dates if possible.
Security managers should continuously monitor news and analysis about upcoming elections, including through in-country news sources, U.S. Embassy alerts, and consultations with OSAC analysts. Understand the country’s history of electoral violence and note specific areas that have experienced violence in recent elections. Assess the risks of electoral violence during all election phases through continuous consideration of the triggers of violence listed above.
Prepare employees for the potential of violence throughout the election cycle by developing an emergency preparedness plan. Ensure employees know emergency contact numbers and understand how to communicate with your organization in case of an emergency. Have employees submit travel notifications to local security managers before travel outside of their normal work areas and identify rally points in case of separation from other travelers. Employees should also identify alternative travel routes in case of demonstrations or road closures. Avoid all demonstrations, since even peaceful gatherings can quickly turn violent. Encourage employees to enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) to receive security alerts from the U.S. Embassy.
Review OSAC’s report, 11 Best Practices for Crisis Preparedness
Private-sector organizations should be mindful of expressing support for candidates or political parties, whether through communications or donations. Seek legal guidance on local laws surrounding private-sector and foreign involvement in elections, ensure any offers of support do not violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and obtain approval from internal legal and compliance teams before offering any financial or non-financial support. If private-sector organizations choose to support candidates or political parties in any form, consider how doing so may impact relations with local communities and local staff. An increase in targeted or general xenophobia against foreign private-sector organizations and their countries of origin is possible following overt political involvement. Finally, ensure any support to a political party or candidate is transparent and not used to support any harmful or illegal activities.
Additional Information
For more information on election security, contact OSAC’s Research & Analysis team.
