Date Published: April 7, 2026
Summary
Pakistan declared “open war” on Afghanistan following an exchange of attacks across their shared border.[1] This report details the events leading up to Pakistan conducting strikes into Afghanistan, the ensuing geopolitical fallout, and its impact on private sector operations within the region.
Terrorist Attacks Lead to Declaration of War
Pakistan has accused Afghanistan of negligence in management of its internal security dealings with terrorist groups, such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State in the Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). Pakistan believes these groups are utilizing Afghanistan as a base of operations to launch their attacks. Afghanistan has denied these claims, but the increase in attacks inside Pakistan has strained relations between the two countries.[2]
The TTP and ISIS-K conducted multiple deadly attacks across Pakistan in 2025. The most recent occurred on February 6, with a suicide bomber detonating explosives in Islamabad, killing 31 and injuring 170[3] This marked the deadliest attack in Islamabad in 10 years and represented a significant escalation in terrorist attacks inside the country[4]
In response, Pakistan conducted several airstrikes along the Afghan-Pakistan border on February 22. Pakistan stated that these strikes successfully eliminated 70 militants, but Afghanistan claimed that women and children were among the casualties.[5] On February 26, the Afghan Taliban retaliated against Pakistani forces across its Northwestern border And Pakistan subsequently responded by conducting further airstrikes across Afghanistan, striking Kabul, Paktia, and Kandahar, and declaring “open war” on Afghanistan.
Ongoing Conflict Unlikely to Lead to Ceasefire
The Afghan Taliban has continued to conduct multiple attacks along their southern and northern borders with Pakistan. On March 2, they carried out small arms attacks southern border in Balochistan, with 27 conducted along the northern border with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.[6] Pakistan Armed Forces reported that it had successfully killed over 40 Afghan Taliban fighters, but the exact number is unknown. On March 4, Pakistan hit Afghanistan’s Taliban-controlled Bagram Air Base with airstrikes, destroying an aircraft hangar and two warehouses.[7]
Pakistan publicly stated that the lack of bilateral cooperation toward border security remains the root cause for the recent escalation. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan offered to broker a revival of the ceasefire that the two countries had initially agreed to in October 2025. This ceasefire was moderated by Qatar and Turkey and was received positively by all parties. Follow-up meetings on November 6 and 7 in Islamabad but yielded no substantial progress and the ceasefire negotiations stalled.[8] The recent violence signified the end of the ceasefire. The Pakistani government reiterated that its operations would not stop until Afghanistan’s government effectively ceases support for terrorist organizations in within Afghanistan and no longer provides a haven for them. Due to ideological similarities between the Afghan Taliban and TTP, it is unlikely that the Afghan Taliban will publicly renounce the TTP.
On April 2, Pakistan confirmed that it was holding peace talks with Afghanistan’s Taliban in China. China is attempting to broker a lasting ceasefire between the two countries following weeks of conflict. Pakistan stated that a ceasefire will only last if Afghanistan is able to demonstrate action against terrorist groups within its borders.[9]
Private-Sector Impact
The U.S. Department of State advises ”do not travel” to Balochistan Province and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province, including the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), due to terrorism and kidnapping. Travel is also not advised in the immediate vicinity of the Line of Control, the military-controlled border region of Kashmir that separates India controlled Jammu and Kashmir, due to terrorism and the potential for armed conflict.
Cross-border violence between Pakistan and Afghanistan present threats to private sector organizations within the affected border region. Border closures between Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to interrupt trade and personnel movements across the border, which may impact shipment and transfer of goods and workers.
Additional Information
For more information on the security environment in Pakistan and across SCA, contact OSAC’s Asia team.
The opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of State or any affiliated organization(s). Nor have these opinions been approved or sanctioned by these organizations. This product is unclassified based on the definitions in E.O. 13526. OSAC’s full disclaimer and copyright policy is available on our site at OSAC.gov/About/Disclaimer.
