Summary

This OSAC report provides a brief update on recent events in North America.

Canada: Threats to U.S. Consulates

On March 10 at approximately 4:30 a.m., two persons emerged from a white Honda CRV SUV and fired multiple shots at the U.S. consulate in Toronto, Canada. No injuries resulted from the shooting, though the exterior of the building was damaged.[1] Two teenage suspects were arrested in connection with the shooting and a Toronto police officer was shot and killed when executing a search warrant related to the incident.[2] Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a 32-year-old Iraqi national, was arrested in the United States and charged with orchestrating this attack and several similar shootings at synagogues in Toronto, as well as numerous incidents in Europe as a direct response to the military actions against the Iranian state this year.[3] The teenage suspects are thought to be part of criminal-for-hire network and were not necessarily driven by pro-Iranian motives.[4]

On July 27 at 4:46 a.m., a white Honda Accord drove past the U.S. Consulate in Toronto and fired at least one shot at the closed building[5]. No one was injured. Two suspects, a 19- and 15-year-old, were arrested in connection with the case. Toronto Police believe they were hired via an online messaging service to conduct the shooting; their motives appeared to be solely financial. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police are investigating both Toronto shootings as national security incidents.

On Monday, August 10, several blocks of downtown Halifax were evacuated in response to a bomb threat against the area’s U.S. consulate building.[6] Local police received the threat on August 9, prompting a search for the suspect. Police located the suspect’s vehicle the next morning, August 10, and found propane tanks and evidence of other flammable liquids in the vehicle, prompting the evacuation of the area. The evacuation was lifted later the same day when a bomb expert determined the van and contents carried no risk of explosion. A local man, 54-year-old Ali Assakereh, was arrested for the incident and charged with uttering threats and public mischief.

Analyst’s note: These three incidents establish a potential pattern of anti-U.S. sentiment, with threats directed at U.S. Government facilities. While the March shooting is the only incident with an alleged motive thus far, as established with the arrest of Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi, a similar anti-U.S. and pro-Iranian motive is possible in the other two cases. The Second Toronto consulate shooting replicated the tactic allegedly used by Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi to engage teenagers from a criminal-for-hire network. State actors, like Iran and Russia, have been known to use criminal-for-hire schemes in the past.[7] Ali Assakereh has yet to share a motive for his threat to the consulate in Halifax.

Another interesting thread is the low scale of the shooting attacks. They were conducted at night around the same hour, when there would not be a large presence at the consulate and just a few shots were fired on a building that is known to be highly fortified, suggesting the organizers had not intended to injure any personnel or cause significant damage to the building. It is too early to say if this is the case in Halifax. A bomb threat is a clear escalation from a late-night shooting, but the materials in the car were found not to be dangerous to the public. It is unknown if that was because the suspect did not properly prepare for a planned attack, if he intended to disrupt the area with a threat rather than conduct a violent attack, or this was simply an irrational action by a mentally unstable individual.

Michoacan: U.S. Pauses Operations

The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City announced on August 5 that the U.S. government would suspend all operations in the Mexican state of Michoacan due to a threat against American interests.[8] Michoacan is listed as a Level 4: Do Not Travel location in the Mexico Travel Advisory due to the high risk of violence in the state from designated foreign terrorist organizations, cartels, gangs and criminal organizations. It is also the center of Mexico’s avocado industry, an industry known to experience high rates of extortion, as growers are forced to pay exorbitant fees to cartel or gang members.[9]

The U.S. has limited operations in Michoacan, but the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) must inspect avocados before they can be exported to the United States, which receives approximately 80% of its avocado supply from designated orchards and packing houses in Mexico. Any time the U.S. pauses avocado exports, the economy in Michoacan, and Mexico as a whole, is significantly impacted. In order to prevent this damage and support of its diplomatic partnership with the U.S., Mexico deployed 1,500 troops to Michoacan to improve security in the region which allowed the U.S. to fully resume activities on August 13.[10]

Analyst’s note: The United States has paused activities in Michoacan on previous occasions when APHIS inspectors were put at risk due to the extortion network in the region. In 2024, two U.S. Department of Agriculture employees were kidnapped and assaulted. An inspector was threatened in a phone call in 2022. In each incident, the U.S. government also resumed activities after a few days. Pauses like this one are likely to continue as needed to protect U.S. personnel.

Additional Information

For more information on the security environment in Mexico and across the Western Hemisphere, contact OSAC’s Americas team.

• OSAC Country Page: Mexico
• OSAC Country Security Report: Mexico

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